Insurance Companies believe in Michael Phelps....do you?

By now, everybody has heard the story of Michael Phelps, and how he's on pace to win an unprecedented 8 Olympic gold medals this year.  He's the main event at the Olympics, the golden-boy.  So I'm not going to rehash how incredible he's been (and yes, that is exactly what he is, incredible).

As I drove to work, Mike & Mike were discussing Phelps, and I learned something new.  Speedo, his primary sponsor and maker of his swimsuit, has a deal where if Phelps wins 7+ golds this year, he will earn an additional $1 million in bonus money.  But this isn't the first time that he's had this deal.

In the 2004 Athens Games, Speedo had the same deal with Phelps.  You win 7 golds, you take home a cool million.  That year, Speedo insured this deal, so that if Phelps won, Speedo would only have to pay $300k of the prize, leaving the remainder to the insurance company.  Of course, he went on to win 6 Gold medals, and didn't win the prize.

Fast forward to this year.  Speedo largely left the deal the same,  win 7, go home rich.  They shopped the deal around...and one-by-on....GEICO, Progressive, Allstate, Loyd's of London, etc.....all passed!  Now Speedo is on the hook for the entire $1 in the event that he shatters all 8 events.

so, if the bean counters and actuaries at the world's largest insurance companies believe in him....do you?