What Interesting Times We Live In

Sharad asked me to help him get the posts going again, so I thought I'd provide some perspective on the times that we live in and the events that are occurring.

While I have been pretty busy myself reviewing for the GMAT, planning a trip to India, looking for my next marathon, and trying to keep up with technology, this hasn't stopped me from being amazed by the historical nature of the events of the last six months. You might be asking yourself why the last six months should be considered so historical. I think there are two primary reasons why this 6 month period should be considered very historical.

First, for people in the under 30 age range, this is their first experience dealing with an economic recession as a working professional. The terms "bailout", layoffs, corporate losses, and market fluctuations take on new meaning. However, let me look back in time to a posting I wrote on April 12th about GE's earnings. In this posting, I indicated Wallstreet was nervous about GE missing its earning forecast and how this might indicate economic problems. Fast forwarding to today, I check GE's share price and it is currently at 16.36 down from the price of 36.25 when I bought into the company. I guess at the time Wallstreet was right to be nervous about perilous economic times being ahead.

In the past six months, we've seen various measures done to try and prop up the global economy. This includes everything ranging from coordinated rate cuts by central banks, the opening of the discount window to investment banks, capital investments in banks by national governments including a 700 billion bailout from Uncle Sam, the AIG credit line and loans, and Warren Buffet's investment in Goldman Sachs and GE. (Note: I just want to add even though Warren's investments are underwater at the moment, he still received a good deal and really his investments have a horizon of at least 5-10 years, and hopefully everything will be corrected at that time. :) ).

The problem with these measures is that they don't solve the fundamental problem that got us in this situation in the first place which is the creation of complex securities based on assets (eg. houses) with falling values. The problem is that currently no one knows how to value the underlying assets of the complex securities. These measures simply give corporations and the economy an additional 6-18 months to hopefully make sense of the true value of the assets and let investors get off the emotional roller coaster of the last six months. Personally, I don't agree with a lot of the measures such as lowering the interest rate, making capital investments in financial institutions, or picking and choosing which companies will be saved from failure, but I understand the necessity to have the appearance of doing something rather than nothing. By the time economy recovers, which who knows how long that will take, this time period for people age 30 and under will easily be compared to the Great Depression with the bank and corporate failures we've already witnessed and depending on how much the overall economy shrinks.

In terms of the economic problems facing the U.S, this also presents an opportunity to work together to solve fundamental problems such as the energy independence and the lack of infrastructure throughout the country. Like the Great Depression, massive infrastructure upgrades such as high speed rail could serve as one way to create jobs and benefit the economy. Another way out will be the encouragement of innovation in relation to energy independence. The government should be using some of the bailout money to provide incentives to the private sector to develop technology and products to help the nation become energy independent. We could also use this bailout money to upgrade infrastructure at gas stations to put energy friendly technology in place. This is something private industry and the current administration has refused to do. It is my hope that the Obama administration will lead the way on the efforts of infrastructure upgrades and energy independence, which leads me to my second reason for calling the last six months so historical - the election of the first African-American as President of the United States.

I am proud to say that I voted for Barrack Obama to be President. For those who know me, this is quite a turn around for someone who initially supported the Iraq war (Note - Two years ago, I began to strongly oppose our presence in Iraq and think we should begin withdrawing immediately.) The election of Obama shows that there are no boundaries left for African Americans to cross. It shows that Americans make judgments based not on how someone looks, but on what their ideas, beliefs, and values are. I think the election of Obama is also very much needed in this country. At time when the rest of the world views the US as a country that is not willing to cooperate towards a solution, I think President Obama will be able to begin to change this perception. Finally, I think that the country will benefit from a much younger President that is also trying to raise a family.

These are challenging times that we live in, however, the challenges also present new opportunities for our country. Our country should take advantage of these opportunities to upgrade infrastructure, become energy independent, and change the overseas perception of the U.S. If we are able to begin to accomplish these things in the next 4-8 years, then the process to partially repair the damage that has been done to our reputation and economy will have started.