The Academy Awards Prediction Markets

Its no secret that I'm a huge fan of the prediction markets on intrade.com.  Intrade is basically a boolean predication market, where you "invest" on the likelihood of a something either happening or not happening.

So if you were a political junkie, you could on a daily basis track what the "market" thought about Obama or McCain's chances last  year.

But with the Oscars less than 30 minutes away, and since I've been bad and haven't seen any of the favorites besides Slumdog and Milk, I'm going to rely on the "market".

Usually each choice is binary...but since this is multi-choice, I'm not sure why the percents don't add up to 100%.  either way, just use them as a rough proxy, i suppose.

Here's the current predictions:

Best Cinematography:

• Winner:  Slumdog Millionaire - 73% chance to win
• Benjamin Button - 28%
• Reader - 17%
• Dark Knight - 11%
• Changeling - Not being traded anymore

Best Animated Feature Film:

• Winner - Wall-E - 97% chance to win
• Kung Fu Panda - 5%
• Bolt - Not being traded anymore

Best Director:

• Winner - Danny Boyle (slumdog) - 95% chance to win
• Gus Van Sant (milk) - 5.9%
• David Fincher (benjamin button) - 5%
• Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) - 5%
• Stephen Daldry (Reader) - 1%

 Best Supporting Actress:

• Winner - Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) - 60.4% chance to win
• Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Button) -  20.9%
  
• Viola Davis (Doubt) - 18.7%
• Amy Adams (Doubt) - 14%
• Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) - 5.7%

 Best Supporting Actor:

• Winner - Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) - 98.5% chance to win 
• Josh Brolin (Milk) - 5%
• Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) - 4.9%
• Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt) - 4.3%
• Robert Downey Jr (Tropic Thunder) - 2.9%

Best Actress:

• Winner - Kate Winslet (The Reader) - 85% chance to win
• Meryl Streep (Doubt)- 15%
• Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) - 5.5%
• Melissa Leo (Frozen River) - 2.0%
  
• Angelina Jolie (Changeling) - 1.9%

Best Actor:

• Winner - Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) - 66.2% chance to win 
• Sean Penn (Milk) - 33.7%
• Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) - 4.9%
• Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button) - 1.4%
• Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) - 1.4%

 Best Picture:

• Winner - Slumdog Millionaire - 90.3% chance to win
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 8%
• Milk - 4%
• The Reader - 3%
  
• Frost/Nixon - 1.4%